Chart a symbol’s average seasonal path, pick an entry and exit date up to 60 days apart, and see how that window performed year by year.
| # | Dir | Entry | Exit | Move | Days | Pts/Day | Efficiency |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Long | Jan 20(0) | Feb 7(27.9) | 27.9 | 18 | 1.55 | |
| 2 | Short | Jan 4(16.5) | Jan 20(0) | 16.5 | 16 | 1.03 |
The average seasonal path on one chart, with each past year’s result for your window in a bar chart and trade list, so a strong average driven by one outlier year stands out.
Entry, exit, prices and return for each year the window was tested, listed under the summary statistics.
Average return, average win and loss, best and worst year, equity curve and drawdown for the window, plus its current regime.
A comparison table sets the window’s counted trades beside those that started when Williams A/D agreed with your direction and, with Pro, beside those taken only when the symbol’s price cycle pointed the same way.
Seasonality × price cycles
A seasonal window opens on the same dates every year, but the symbol’s own price cycle can be rising or falling when it does. With the Pro plan, the Trade Filter Comparison adds a Cycle aligned column: the window’s past trades counted only in the years when the price cycle pointed the same way at entry, beside the full record.
Trade Filter Comparison
BLDR · Long · 10 years
| Metric | All trades | Williams A/D | EC HOT only | Cycle aligned |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
| Win Rate | 30% | 50% | — | 75% |
| Avg Return | -1.46% | -0.27% | — | +0.72% |
| Total Return | -14.63% | -1.62% | — | +2.87% |
| Compounded Equity | $861 | $983 | — | $1,029 |
| Max Win | +2.21% | +2.21% | — | +2.21% |
| Max Loss | -5.52% | -2.68% | — | -1.06% |
Cycle filter method · Current cycle, historical refits · 10/10 entries covered
Choose a symbol in the app’s symbol search. The Analyser draws its seasonal curve, the average shape of its price through the calendar year, and marks the turning points on it.
The page pre-selects a window, usually from today to the next turning point on the curve, or the one from a screener link you followed. Change it with the date menus, two clicks on the chart, or a row in the seasonal patterns table.
Switch between Long and Short, and set how many past years feed the curve and the statistics: 5, 10, 20 or 50, or all available data. The default is 10 years.
The page shows how that window turned out in each past year: win rate, average return, a bar per year and a row per trade. Windows with at least 10 past trades in total also get an equity curve and cycle analysis.
The chart and the patterns table describe the symbol’s average calendar year. Most other panels describe the date window and direction you select. These are the main elements and what they mean.
Every number on the page comes from stored daily price history and fixed rules that are the same for every symbol. This is what goes into each part and what is left out.
Each past year inside your History setting is put on a common scale, and the years are combined into one average seasonal curve, shown from 0 at its lowest point to 100 at its highest. With the default turning-point method, Top and Bottom markers flag the curve’s major peaks and lows.
Each qualifying year gives one trade for the window, from the close at the entry date to the close at the exit date, moved to a trading day when either date falls on a day the market is closed. The return is the percentage change between those two closes, with the sign reversed for Short. Commissions, slippage and position sizing are not included. Years with too little price data, or with long gaps in it, are skipped.
A trade counts as a win when its result is zero or positive. Win rate and averages use the calendar years inside the History setting, so the default of 10 years can include up to 11 trades. Averages are simple means of the yearly percentage returns. The equity curve compounds every past trade whatever the History setting, and its maximum drawdown is the largest fall from a peak along that curve.
The regime comes from a cycle model fitted to the window’s full compounded record. It looks for repeating rhythms in how the window has performed and projects them over its next few occurrences. The label is HOT when that projection leans above the cycle’s midline, COLD when it leans below, and NEUTRAL when it is balanced. The Bartels test is a statistical test of whether wins and losses line up with the strongest cycle. It is marked low confidence when the record covers too few cycles.
Cycle aligned starts from the cycle lengths in the symbol’s current saved price-cycle model. Before each past seasonal entry, those lengths are refitted on prices from before the entry, and the year counts only if the refitted model was in a long position for a long window, or a short one for a short window. Entry and exit dates and returns stay the window’s own. The lengths were chosen with today’s data, so the comparison is retrospective, and with one trade a year the filtered samples are small.
Daily prices are downloaded with split and dividend adjustments and refreshed every weeknight, so older entry and exit prices can differ from those quoted at the time. The seasonal curve, turning points and Williams A/D reading are recalculated from stored prices each time the page loads. Per-year trades are regenerated once a week for most symbols, starting Sunday night. The current year’s trade appears after that run. For windows that close early in the year, it appears only once the year has enough price data.
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The date menus accept any pair of dates, but year-by-year results exist only for windows of 4 to 60 calendar days that start and end in the same calendar year, in either direction. For a longer window, or one that crosses December 31, the chart still loads but no trades are listed.
Each past year gives one trade for the window, from the close on the entry date to the close on the exit date, shifted to a trading day when either date is not one. Win rate is the share of those trades with a zero or positive result, counted over your History setting of 5, 10, 20 or 50 years or all data. No trading costs are included.
The seasonal curve works for any symbol in the app’s symbol list, more than 4,500 in all, subject to your plan. Year-by-year results are generated for a smaller set: the several hundred symbols with at least 10 years of daily data that the Seasonality Screener covers. For other symbols the page shows the curve, turning points and patterns table, but no trades.
Daily prices are refreshed every weeknight, and the seasonal curve, turning points and Williams A/D reading are recalculated from them each time the page loads. Per-year trade results are regenerated once a week for most symbols, so a window that closed in the last few days appears after the next weekly run. A window that closes early in the year appears only once the current year has enough price data.
It is a label from a cycle model fitted to the window’s past results and projected over its next few occurrences: HOT when the projection leans above the cycle’s midline, COLD when it leans below. It needs at least 10 past trades, and with one trade a year the page often marks its cycle test low confidence. It is an extrapolation of past results, not a statement about future returns.
It counts only the past years in which the symbol’s price cycle, refitted on prices from before that year’s entry, pointed the same way as the window: long for a long window, short for a short one. Dates and returns are unchanged, so it shows whether the pattern did better or worse when the cycle agreed. It is part of the Pro plan, and because the cycle lengths come from today’s model, it is a retrospective comparison.
A free account opens the full Analyser for AAPL, NVDA and TSLA, plus a rotating set of symbols with a strong historical record and a screener window opening soon. Other symbols need a full-access plan. The alerts plan adds full reports for each symbol in its weekly email, through links valid for eight days.
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Get startedAll statistics are historical and for research purposes. Past performance does not indicate future results.