Cycles · Market Cycles

When the market rhymes with 60 years ago

Market Cycles takes the swing highs and lows from 60 years ago, maps them onto today and lists the pivot dates that are active or coming up.

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What you can do with it

Pivot dates, projected

Each reference high or low from the 60-year-earlier market becomes a projected date on today’s calendar.

Active and upcoming

See which pivot windows are open now and how many days remain until the next ones.

Backtested, not assumed

Each symbol’s page shows how a pivot-to-pivot test has performed in past years, with the years and trades behind every figure.

Bookmark a pivot

Add any pivot or projected trade to your watchlist, next to the other windows you follow.

How it works

  1. Step 01

    Open the screener

    The screener opens on Long Only and the next 90 days, listing active pivots first and upcoming ones by how soon they fall. You can switch to Short Only or All Directions and set the horizon anywhere from 30 days to a year.

  2. Step 02

    Read active and upcoming pivots

    Upcoming pivots fall after today. Active pivots fell today or within a recent window, and no pivot of the opposite type has followed yet for that symbol.

  3. Step 03

    Open a symbol’s backtest

    Click a row to open that symbol’s page: the next mapped peak or trough, eight summary cards, and tabs for projected trades, trade history, the equity curve and year-by-year results.

  4. Step 04

    Adjust and save

    On the symbol page you can filter by direction and set the swing-detection window, from 5 to 30 trading days. The bookmark icon on either page saves a pivot or projected trade to your watchlist.

What you’ll see

The screener is one table of pivot dates, split into active and upcoming rows, and each symbol has its own page with a backtest. Here is what each column, card and tab shows.

Pivot Date
A past swing high or low moved forward exactly 60 years to the same month and day, shown as a plain calendar date that can fall on a weekend. Once daily prices past that date are in, it is aligned to a trading day.
Ref Pivot, Ref Date and Direction
Ref Pivot shows whether the swing 60 years earlier was a LOW or a HIGH, and Ref Date shows its month and day. Direction is the side the backtest takes from that date: LONG at a reference low, SHORT at a reference high.
Status and Days
Upcoming means the pivot date is still ahead, and Active means it fell today or within a recent window with no opposite pivot since. Days counts calendar days until the pivot, or since it for active rows.
Win Rate, Profit Factor and Avg Return
Figures from the symbol’s full backtest at the default settings, long and short trades together, whatever direction the table shows. They describe the symbol rather than the single pivot, so every row of a symbol repeats the same values.
Cycle Direction
The first card on a symbol’s page names the next mapped pivot and its date: Rising when it is a reference high (Next Peak), Falling when it is a reference low (Next Trough). It shows a date carried over from 60 years earlier, not a price forecast.
Summary cards
Years analyzed, win rate with wins and losses, profit factor, final equity from $1,000, average return, average win and loss, max drawdown, and trade count with a per-year average. They use completed trades only, each counted once, for the direction and window you select.
Upcoming and History
Upcoming lists projected trades whose exit date is still ahead, with the reference pivots behind them and an entry price once the entry date has passed. History lists each completed trade in the selected direction with its entry and exit closes and its return.
Equity Curve
Your starting amount, $1,000 by default, compounded through the completed trades. With 10 or more trades, a cycle model is fitted to the curve. Trades are marked HOT where the modeled cycle rises and COLD where it falls, and the model projects the HOT and COLD mix forward.
Year-by-Year
One row per test year, with its reference year, trades, wins, win rate, average return and total return. Each test year’s window reaches into the following year, so rows overlap. Rows include long and short trades whatever the filter, and total return is a simple sum, not compounded.

How the numbers are calculated

Every figure comes from daily price history. The pivot dates use no planetary data: they are the market’s own swing highs and lows from 60 years earlier, moved forward on the calendar.

Finding swing highs and lows

The tool scans each symbol’s daily price history for its swing highs and lows, the points where price turned. The result is cleaned up so that highs and lows alternate. A detection window, counted in trading days, controls which turns qualify as swings. The screener always uses one fixed window, and a symbol’s page lets you choose it, from 5 to 30 trading days.

Moving them 60 years forward

Each swing keeps its month and day and moves forward exactly 60 calendar years, so a swing in 1966 lands on the same date in 2026. Dates that fall inside the existing price history are aligned to trading days, while future dates stay on the calendar date, weekends included.

Building the backtest trades

Each test year uses the mapped swings from its reference year, 60 years earlier, together with part of the year that follows. Each trade runs from one mapped pivot to the next, long when it starts at a reference low and short when it starts at a reference high. Returns run close to close on daily prices, with no commissions, slippage or stops.

How the statistics are defined

Win rate is the share of completed trades, those whose exit has passed, with a return above zero, so a flat trade counts as a loss. Profit factor weighs the gains of the winning trades against the losses of the losing ones, and shows ∞ when there are no losses. Final equity compounds $1,000 through the trades, and max drawdown is the largest fall from a peak in that equity.

Coverage and refresh

Only symbols whose daily price history spans at least 60 years qualify, and testing starts 60 years after a symbol’s first year of data. A stock with prices from 1962 is tested from 2022, and the Dow, with data from 1896, from 1956. The pivot list is rebuilt every morning after 08:00 UTC, and a symbol’s backtest runs on the current price history when you open its page.

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Questions about Market Cycles

What is the 60-year market cycle?

It is the idea that markets can echo their path from 60 years earlier. This tool applies it literally: swing highs and lows from 60 years ago move forward exactly 60 calendar years, with no planetary data involved, and a backtest shows how pivot-to-pivot trades between those dates performed in past years. It projects dates, not prices.

Which symbols does Market Cycles cover?

Only symbols with at least 60 years of daily price history, because every pivot comes from the market 60 years earlier. That is a few dozen: long-listed stocks such as Coca-Cola, IBM and Exxon Mobil, plus the S&P 500, the Dow, the NYSE Composite and three US Treasury yield indices.

How is the Market Cycles win rate calculated?

It is the share of completed backtest trades with a return above zero. Each trade runs from one mapped pivot to the next and is measured close to close on daily prices, with no commissions or slippage. Flat trades count as losses, and trades that have not closed yet are left out.

Why does the Market Cycles screener win rate differ from the symbol page?

The screener shows the symbol’s full backtest at the default swing-detection window, with long and short trades together. The symbol page uses the direction and window you pick, starting on Long Only and the default window.

How far back is each symbol tested?

Testing starts 60 years after a symbol’s first year of data, because each test year needs a reference year. The S&P 500 is tested from 2010 and the Dow from 1956, but most stocks have prices from 1962 and so are tested only from 2022, a few dozen trades or fewer. The Years Analyzed and Trades cards show how much history sits behind each figure.

How often is Market Cycles data updated?

The pivot list is rebuilt every morning after 08:00 UTC from the latest daily prices, and the day counts are recalculated each time the screener loads. A symbol’s backtest runs on the current price history when you open its page.

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All statistics are historical and for research purposes. Past performance does not indicate future results.